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The Houston Business Report: Should you pay attention?

Ross S. Harvison, President and Managing Partner at Intuitivum Group, LLC and Vice President of ISM-Houston

Economic forecasts are essential for business analysis and decision making in both the public and private sector. The ISM-Houston Business Survey and resulting Houston Purchasing Managers Index (HPMITM) have been available as a leading indicator of the Greater Houston area economy for almost 20 years. Evidence suggests that this indicator is an effective predictor of moves in the Houston area economy at a three to four month forecast horizon. However, analysis to confirm the overall suitability of this indicator as a forecast tool has only just been completed by ISM-Houston. To understand the capability of the HPMITM as a forecast tool, nineteen years of monthly Houston Purchasing Managers Index data was compared with Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown Business-Cycle Index data published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. This analysis revealed strong correlations between the two data sets and showed that business-cycle index forecasts using HPMITM data are more accurate than other publically available forecasts. ISM-Houston will be publishing the results of this study during the fourth quarter. This presentation will give attendees an advanced view of the results of this study.


Ross Harvison is a supply chain and operations change consultant who works with executives in small to mid-capital companies to assist their efforts to prioritize business needs, build strategies, gain buy in and execute programs. He has more than 30 years of experience in commercial, analytical, engineering and manufacturing environments in large global organizations and is recognized for his ability to deliver significant operations and commercial change. Ross is also the Vice President of the Houston affiliate of the Institute for Supply Management and the chair of the chapter’s Business Survey Committee. He received his B.S. degree in Chemical Engineering from the University of Arizona and is a Villanova trained Lean Six Sigma Black Belt.